Gold Update Trade Entry Point

Current status / influencing factors

U.S. Interest Rate (Fed)

-The market expects the Fed to start lowering interest rates, which support gold because the opportunity cost is lower. If the interest rate is lower = > gold will look more attractive.

-If the Fed says or gestures more "hawkish" - threatens to raise interest or not reduce - the price of gold could be depressed.

U.S. dollar

- Dollars soften, support gold, because gold against dollars is better used as a hedge.

If the dollar is hard - on the U.S. economic recovery, or on fiscal policy changes - it could press gold.

Reuters

Needs from central banks / ETFs / actual needs

-Many central banks continue to buy more gold to hold reserves (reserves).

- Gold-based ETFs also receive a steady flow of money.

-Uncertainty (Geopolitical risk, inflation, other external factors)

-If there's more geopolitical tension / Inflation is still high = > People look for safer assets like gold more.

But if the economy is going very well / the stock market is going up strong - people may back out of gold to yield or profit from other assets.

Thai gold trade

Estimated trends (2025-2026)

UBS expects the gold price to reach ~ $3,800 / oz by the end of 2025.

Reuters

Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 forecast to ~ $4,000 / oz as it forecast lower interest rates & weak dollars.

Some institutions warn there could be a ~ 5-6% correction before the gold rises further.

Resistance / technical defensive

Spot gold prices have already surpassed new highs in 2025.

But there is a profitable pour force & small base adjustment is normal after rising force.

Price trends

-Some camp analysts, such as UBS, expect gold to reach\ ~ $3,800 an ounce by the end of 2025.

- Deutsche Bank sees 2026 may hit\ ~ $4,000.

- However, there is a chance that the price will temporarily rest or shrink by 5-6% before rising.

Entry / Exit Ideaf

Long side (buy)

- Waiting for the price to be shortened to $3,600-$ 3,650 / oz defensive line with a reversal signal.

- Or wait for the price to break through the resistance $3,720-3,750 / ounce and enter when the breakout is confirmed.

-Medium-Range Target $3,800-4,000 / oz

- Stop-loss under key defenses, like $3,600.

Short Side (Sale / Profit)

-If prices go up, hit big resistance, but the Fed signals no lower interest or higher bond yields.

- Target stands for $3,500-3,600 / ounce.

- Stop-loss over big resistance, like $3,800.

What should continue to follow

- Fed meeting and interest direction

- U.S. dollar and bond yield

- US inflation / economic figures

- International tensions

I see gold as a chance to move on in the medium to long term, but on the way there will be intermittent base breaks, so a good strategy is to "wait for a short stroke and accumulate" or "play along the key breakout," setting the stop-loss clear to control the risk.

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