In evaluating 1st round picks for the 2026 fantasy football season, Ashton Jeanty emerges as a compelling choice due to several key factors that suggest a high upside and potential league-winning performance. From my experience following fantasy drafts closely, players who show strong underlying metrics despite a somewhat disappointing rookie year often outperform expectations when given the right opportunity. Jeanty’s rookie season included limited red zone touches — only 23 times inside the 10-yard line — which ranked low compared to top running backs over the past five years. This limited opportunity, combined with a fresh play caller in the Raiders’ offense, sets him up for significant touchdown regression upside. Based on similar cases, new coaching staff tends to reshape offensive strategies that can reignite a player’s scoring chances. What makes Jeanty particularly attractive is his dual-threat ability as both a rusher and receiver. With one of the highest snap shares for a running back and a notable target share, his receiving skills add a valuable dimension to his fantasy floor. This versatility aligns well with current trends favoring running backs who can contribute reliably in PPR formats. Additionally, Jeanty’s high expected fantasy points per opportunity compared to other rookie backs like Bijan Robinson and Jamir Gibbs shows he’s already producing at a high level in efficiency, even if raw numbers haven’t caught up yet. In my leagues, targeting players who show positive touchdown regression and have new offensive leadership often yields great returns — and Jeanty fits this profile. Overall, for those preparing their 2026 drafts, monitoring Jeanty’s usage and continued development within the Raiders’ offense could offer a significant competitive edge. His pedigree, workload, and the potential for an improved offense make him not just a sleeper, but a prime candidate for a top 10 or top 15 overall pick. This calculated risk is one I recommend for fantasy owners who want to maximize their first-round value.