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☕️ the same storm. Why is the Thai boat sailing the slowest?
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Thailand's second-quarter 2026 GDP grew to just 1.9%, the lowest among ASEAN's six major economies.
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This number is true, but picking it up without talking about what's going on around it can leave half the truth.
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The Iran-US war began on February 28, at the end of the first quarter, Thailand's GDP grew by 2.8%, but entering the second quarter, which hit almost a full quarter, the economy slowed to 1.9%.
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Energy prices rose, production costs and cost of living increased, flights and tourists fell, while public purchasing power was already weak, so the war undeniably pressed the Thai economy.
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But not to blame all the war either.
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Because other countries in ASEAN also experience the same storm as us, but many countries are still growing better. Singapore and Malaysia have transmission from AI, semiconductors and data centers. Indonesia has a large internal market and commodity base. Vietnam is also driven by foreign production and investment.
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While Thailand still carries household debt, weak purchasing power, tense loans, an ageing society, and an underutilized industrial sector, when a storm hits, a ship with a leak is stronger than any other ship.
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So war is not the cause of every problem if it is like an X-ray machine that makes us see how fragile the Thai economy is.
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The government has no right to use war as an excuse, but the commentator should also not remove war from the equation. Just to throw all the blame on the government.
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Because the storm explains why we slow down, but it does not explain why we are slower than our friends.
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What people are waiting to hear is not an explanation of who is wrong, but an answer to who can actually fix the ship, change the engine, and get the country out of the same waters.
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Look in the political field today, and frankly, economic problems are not as good to solve as Toni.
