End of War 3 Best-Worst Patterns

Geopolitics and security expert Dr Ninthan Wattanayakorn, a former security adviser to the prime minister for many times, released an article called "What is the endgame?" on December 20, 2025.

It shows the three scenarios that will take place after this Thai-Cambodian battle, in the worst, best, and divided ways, with the middleman divorced.

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What kind of ending is Thai Cambodia?

What is the endgame?

Before the special session on Thailand-Cambodia in Kuala Lumpur early next week on Monday 22, there are some signs (Clues) saying that the conference will play a big part in setting the historic war of these two countries in which direction to stop shooting or whether peace will be on a piece of paper as before or how.

Judging from the pre-negotiation meetings of many of the countries involved now before the actual meeting, such as the facts of hostilities, the conditions for the ceasefire, the improvement of the Observer Corps, the addition of intermediary countries, as well as the identification of procedures and modalities for reentry into the "Kuala Lumpur Peace Declaration" or other mechanisms, we would have initially concluded that at least the outcome of such meetings would not go beyond the three modalities below:

1. The first form - the "worst" (Worst Case Scenario) is "irreconcilable." In this form, if it is true, the Thai side must see that Cambodia is not likely to truly "end the threat." It is intended to occupy Thailand and constantly encroach on Thai sovereignty. Importantly, the Thai military has not been able to retake the area as needed, so it must continue to do military action by the Thai political department, which controls the policy and direction of the conflict according to the law, it must see that it is not sufficiently beneficial or not very advantageous, and most people must agree. For the next battle will not randomly risk excessive losses.

Cambodia must also look at the same side, but it is on the other side of the same coin, or it is a mirror of international politics. (Mirror Image) That Thailand is still a major threat and needs to reduce that threat. Cambodian leaders also need to negotiate with Thai leaders and want to continue to "teach" Thai people. Cambodia must ensure that certain national and international powers can continue to increase their support to fight Thailand, as seen in Europe or in the Middle East. Cambodia's leaders must also be confident that they will "arrest" or Control everything in their country, like many years ago.

If that were true, the Cambodian-Thai war would continue as continuously and prolonged as the war in many regions, and then each power and ally would have no other choice and would have to seriously help Thailand and Cambodia, which would cause a full-scale regional proxy war, all of which would be the "worst" approach to the people, to the economy, society and other aspects of the country.

But considering all the factors, it is still necessary to assume that the tendency of the situation to take this first form is "not yet great," which is an opportunity for all parties to accelerate to find other, better solutions.

2. The second model: "Best Case Scenario" is Thailand and Cambodia. "Comprehensive Agreement" is that both sides want the conflict to be "really over" in a way that does not cause more blood damage, ending the conflict seriously and permanently and with a Comprehensive Agreement, which can be divided into two steps:

2.1) First Stage Plan - Establish a "three-layer safe zone" - the outer layer is a "demilitarized zone" (DMZ) in the battle area (red area) to be a weapon-free zone, no mines, no drone flight, no deployment or strengthening forces, with a modern and effective surveillance system, such as the use of satellites or motion cameras in the surveillance area at all times, next to the middle area is a "security buffer zone" (SBZ) along the seven border provinces, both land and sea. (Yellow Area) to control checkpoints, all kinds of access channels, and activities of the illegal movement, such as scammers, drug trafficking, arms trafficking, human trafficking, illegal energy, or illegal things, which are water pipes or major factors of war, and finally the inner area is a "Humanitarian Corridor Zone" (HCZ), which is a space to help people affected in various areas, a shelter and a shelter waiting for repatriation to the domicile or the motherland (blue area), based on a pattern that already exists in many countries as a universal system. According to international law; and with the assistance and cooperation of all parties concerned.

2.2) Second Stage Plan - Establish an Accelerated Demarcation Negotiation between Thailand and Cambodia, agreed on bilaterally or between the two countries only to cancel, amend or improve guidelines and agreements and enter into negotiations to complete the remaining borders (1 / 3 parts) as soon as possible, which will address the root cause of the conflict that has existed for hundreds of years, and other remaining problems will be easier to solve in the future.

These are all "Best Case Scenario" because they cover all dimensions, but at the moment there are still "very few" possibilities because there are many complications, such as not many patterns or examples in the international system, not meeting the conditions of Thailand or Cambodia, with complex international laws, with different military or political advantages, and the Cambodian-Thai war that took place was still a small war on the border, which may not have enough weight to make such an all-round agreement easy.

But to make this a reality, there must be enough public support from the great powers and the international community. Importantly, political and leadership must be sincere or determined to push this approach.

3. The third model: the Joint Declaration Plus, Thailand and Cambodia agreed on the "Principles" to return to the original peace agreement that Malaysia, the United States and ASEAN openly pushed for in the first place, and China, Japan and some countries supported it, with an additional proposal (+ Plus) that would make peace not as fragile as previous times.

This time, it is clear that the powers and nations that have been involved since that time, including those newly arrived today, have increasingly pressured Thailand and Cambodia to end hostilities in order to return to the original peace agreement, but by different means, such as threatening tax increases, starting to reduce support, offering themselves as intermediaries, offering to use military tools such as spy satellites, or conducting direct talks, behind-the-scenes talks, etc., all of which are done more openly and clearly.

Interestingly, there is a preliminary proposal before the meeting that Thailand and Cambodia must immediately reduce the level of conflict and confrontation and provide a new scheduled ceasefire. There will be an ASEAN Observer Team - AOT that is ready to closely supervise the ceasefire. There may also be some new mechanisms or elements agreed upon at the meeting that day, such as increasing the role of certain countries, increasing mechanisms to enforce agreements or adding elements to the Declaration, etc.

Importantly, it is possible that the military practices on both sides will be reduced by this weekend because the Thai side is achieving its objective of occupying and establishing key areas at a stable, secure level. Many Thais are beginning to accept what Cambodia's "end of threat" actually means. All of this, if it is in a good way, will smooth the ASEAN meeting on Monday. And if the meeting is effective, the trend of the Cambodian-Thai war to reduce and stop shooting in a meaningful way (but not a complete ceasefire) will increase as well. (Watch Listen Caution for ceasefire in the clip below. Minute 7: 15)

In conclusion, if the Cambodian-Thai war were to end "on a limited basis" (in the third form above), many people would probably still not be very distracted or trusted, because the basic conditions of the conflict remain and the elements of the war have not been seriously controlled, and it is still necessary to continue to monitor the eruption of a new round of conflict or war.

But in the midst of such concerns, the Thai people will be more comfortable seeing that in this war, the Thai military has done their best and best job because it has destroyed Cambodia's military capabilities for many years to go backwards. It is difficult for Cambodia to come back and threaten us again if many parties cooperate. Thai soldiers can take possession and reestablish the territory that belongs to us, even at the expense of blood and loss. In the end, Thai political parties have clearly signaled to Cambodia that in the end, Thai leaders must maintain their national interests and cannot negotiate otherwise.

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