📌 NVIDIA & AMD with 15% from Trump - chance or trap?

📌 NVIDIA & AMD with 15% game from Trump - chance or trap?

The tech stock market has been sweltering because of the news. Trump has a deal with NVIDIA and AMD to pay 15% of the revenue from the sale of chips in China in exchange for export rights to reduced-specification AI chips (H20, MI308).

Many people ask how it affects? I see it as having both advantages and challenges.

And this is an analysis from the perspective of 🕵️‍♂️ capital.

💹 Defensive-Resistance (Technical)

* * NVIDIA (NVDA) * *

- Short defensive line: $180, $172.5, $167.5

- Central defense: $159, $150, $143.

- Long defensive line: $130, $97

* * AMD (AMD) * *

- Short defensive line: $180.3, $176.2, $173.1

- Central defensive line: $170.0, $167.3, $164.1

- Long defensive line: $148, $123

🏭 Basic and Business Overview

NVIDIA

It dominates around 80% of the AI GPU market.

A new version of the Blackwell chip will begin delivery later this year.

AI Data Center revenue grew by an average of > 40% per year during the latter 3 years.

The 15% payment from the Chinese market is only a small part of the total revenue (China ~ 20% of the NVIDIA market).

AMD

Dominate CPU Server + GPU AI Market Direct Competitor NVIDIA

It is accelerating the development of the MI400 series to be launched 2026.

AI revenue is still smaller than NVIDIA, but there are opportunities to grow fast because many customers don't want to rely on a single NVIDIA.

💰 Dividend now.

NVIDIA: Yield is very low < 0.1% because it focuses on investing, expanding business (high growth companies often have little dividends)

AMD: Not yet paying dividends. Focus on all West reins.

> So if you hope for a dividend, choose these two is not the main answer, but if you hope for "Capital Gain," 💹 this is a big line.

🔮 10 more years in the future.

NVIDIA could grow by an average of 20-25% a year if it also dominates the AI Cloud & Data Center market.

AMD could grow to an average of 15-20% per year if it can eat more of its share from NVIDIA and successfully invade the AI Edge + Gaming market.

The AI industry will change all circles of the world - medicine, education, manufacturing and safety.

Both have the opportunity to be the "big vein" of the AI-era global economy.

📊 Let's say 10 years of DCA. 5,000 baht a month.

Hypothetical condition

Invest 5,000 baht per month = 60,000 baht per year

10 Year Period = Total Principal 600,000 Baht

Assuming an average annual growth rate (CAGR).

NVIDIA: 20% per year

AMD: 15% per year

Shares Total Principal (Baht) Year-End Port Value of 10 (Baht) Total Return Average Annual Return

NVIDIA 600,000 ~ 1,900,000 + 1,300,000 20%

AMD 600,000 ~ 1,390,000 + 790,000 15%

🔍 Analyze the differences.

NVIDIA won over "final port value" because the growth rate is slightly higher, and the AI Data Center market is the main vein of the AI era.

AMD is slower to grow, but it is also "very good" growth compared to conventional stocks and benefits from customers not relying on NVIDIA alone.

💡 Thoughts from the 10-year DCA.

Despite the disregard of prices, the power of consistent investment + high growth of stocks makes the difference of a few percent CAGR into the main difference of hundreds of thousands of baht.

If the upstream stock is selected right from the beginning, the result will multiply.

But it has to take fluctuations along the way, because technology stocks like this are up and down. 💥

⚖️ Now is the opportunity?

✅ the opportunity for people who believe in long-term AI growth and see the 15% deal as just a terrible dust.

⚠️ Risk is fierce competition + uncertainty of trade policy (Sino-US)

💬 Summary in the thinking capital angle

> If you look at 5-10 years, you give both NVIDIA and AMD as "AI upstream stocks" that have not yet reached the peak.

But be calm and port to your own risk.

Not every stroke is a buy-in stroke - waiting to enter along the defensive line laid out is safer.

📣 Follow the Think Capital Page and Lemon 🍋

To get a quality-oriented investment perspective and look far.

Anyone have an opinion on this 15% deal? Comment it, and let's see. 💬

# Capital think # NVIDIA # AMD # AI stock # Long-term investment