My Mid-Year 2026 Investment Update
I feel an obligation to my regular readers to provide a mid-year update. However, investment activity-wise, not much has changed since my last post in mid-April.
I remain in dormant mode — actively monitoring the financial markets but deliberately refraining from making any major moves. I suspect it could be another few months before I deploy significant capital, so I may not post another investment update for a while.
While the stock market continues to make new highs, many of the world’s most successful investors have been steadily reducing exposure. Although I don’t invest in individual stocks, I share similar caution regarding current asset valuations.
Notable examples include:
- Greg Abel (Warren Buffett’s successor at Berkshire Hathaway) trimmed the portfolio from 40 positions down to 26, fully exiting Amazon, UnitedHealth, and Domino’s, while significantly cutting Chevron and Bank of America.
- Bill Ackman sold over 94–95% of his Google shares, effectively exiting the position.
- Daniel Loeb exited Microsoft and PG&E entirely, reduced Nvidia by 93.56% and Union Pacific by 94.48%, and closed 20 positions in total during the quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway itself is holding more cash than ever before. According to FT research, Berkshire’s cash, cash equivalents, and US Treasury bills reached a record $397 billion in Q1 2026 — nearly quadruple the level seen in 2022 (see Picture 1).
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel have openly stated that market valuations are too high, attractive acquisition targets are scarce, and they prefer to wait for better opportunities. At the 2026 Berkshire Annual Meeting, Buffett warned that the US has never had more investors in a “gambling mood,” likening today’s market to “a church with a casino attached.” He noted that while investing is not terrible, prices for many assets look “awfully silly.”
Meanwhile, due to persistent inflation, global bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years and continue climbing. This has prompted many experienced investors to stay on the sidelines, waiting for a potential spike in yields that could trigger a significant stock market correction.
Personally, I am anticipating a stock market correction or crash following the highly anticipated IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, expected sometime between September and Q4 2026. I view these three listings as major milestones (and possibly the final major events) for the 2026 AI investment theme.
I fully believe AI will transform the world over the next 5–10 years and drive substantial productivity gains. However, in the near term, I believe the market has gotten ahead of itself. Too much capital has flooded into AI, with expectations that are likely overpromised. When real-world results fall short of the hype, we could see meaningful disappointment and a sharp selldown in AI-related assets.
I expect this potential correction in the “Big 3” IPOs to coincide with a broader market pullback.
Given the combination of a likely stock market correction and higher interest rates (driven by elevated bond yields), I also anticipate downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. As shown in Picture 2, Bitcoin remains below its 200-day simple moving average (purple line), which has been in a clear downtrend since November 2025.
I continue my habit of buying a small amount of Bitcoin each month with salary savings. However, as long as price stays below the 200-day MA, I believe the path of least resistance is lower. I will keep accumulating modestly while reserving the majority of my dry powder for clearer signs of a trend reversal.
Gold looks weak in the short term (Picture 3), with a pattern of lower highs. It recently bounced off the 200-day MA in March, but a decisive break below it could signal further downside. I still maintain exposure to gold as an inflation hedge. The days of long queues at bullion shops like BullionStar appear to have paused for now — a direct result of higher interest rates strengthening fiat currencies and keeping a lid on precious metals prices.
Finally, Picture 4 shows the price of silver denominated in Bitcoin (XAUBTC). I sold some physical gold and silver on 6 March 2026, when 1 oz of silver was worth around 0.00125 BTC. Today, it trades closer to 0.001 BTC — validating that decision. The 200-day MA on this chart is still pointing upward. If silver reaches 0.0014 BTC or higher, I intend to sell more silver for Bitcoin.
Overall stance: I plan to remain cautious for the rest of 2026, letting cash accumulate while staying mostly on the sidelines. I will continue small monthly Bitcoin purchases as a discipline, but the bulk of my capital is reserved for better opportunities after the anticipated correction.
I may be less active on Lemon8 for the remainder of the year. That said, I remain extremely bullish on AI’s long-term future and continue dedicating time daily to learning about the technology for both personal growth and potential future opportunities.
#money #investment #Bitcoin #gold #AI
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All opinions expressed in this post are my personal views and analysis only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment.
Investing involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
I may hold positions in Bitcoin, gold, silver, or other assets mentioned at the time of writing, and these positions may change without notice. My views can change at any time based on new information.
Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and any resulting gains or losses.
Reflecting on the current investment landscape, I’ve found that staying patient and well-informed is crucial, especially in a year marked by turbulent market signals. Berkshire Hathaway’s record cash reserve highlights just how rare it is to find attractively priced assets during periods of high market valuations. This cautious stance resonates with my own experience - rather than chasing hype, I’ve prioritized capital preservation and selective deployment. The upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic represent watershed moments for the AI sector, which many see as the future growth engine for a decade or more. It's exciting to witness such innovation, but as an investor with some experience, I’ve learned that initial enthusiasm often overshadows fundamental value. Expecting some volatility and correction in AI stocks around these IPOs aligns with the lessons gained from previous tech cycles. Regarding cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s persistent trading below its 200-day moving average suggests downward pressure remains intact. Personally, I practice disciplined small monthly accumulations, much like a cost-averaging strategy, while holding back larger investments until clear trend reversals occur. This cautious approach has helped me manage volatility without being swept up in market panic. Gold and silver have traditionally been solid inflation hedges, but their recent weaker performance due to rising interest rates reminds me that even safe havens can fluctuate. Selling some physical silver when it was relatively strong against Bitcoin was a tough but ultimately rewarding decision, reinforcing the value of tracking cross-asset performance. Holding partial exposure to precious metals remains part of my diversified approach. In sum, this mid-year period is about vigilance and readiness. Markets can turn quickly, and being positioned with dry powder ready to invest when opportunities arise increases my confidence. Staying engaged with trends like AI technology while maintaining disciplined risk management has been indispensable this year. For anyone navigating 2026 investments, balancing optimism with caution is a practical way forward.
