Bitcoin Supercycle Book and My Predictions
For those investing in Bitcoin, I highly recommend keeping Bitcoin Supercycle by Michael Terpin as a handy reference on your shelf. Published in 2024, the book is now two years old, so some sections naturally feel dated. If you already have basic to intermediate knowledge of cryptocurrencies — including blockchain fundamentals, alt-coins, and DeFi — parts of it may also come across as fairly introductory.
That said, the book’s greatest value lies in its detailed breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical price cycles. One particularly insightful section (page 175 in the book) is worth bookmarking for its clear analysis of cycle patterns.
Roughly every four years, Bitcoin experiences a halving event, and its price action has tended to follow a recurring seasonal pattern that mirrors the four seasons of the year. According to the author, Spring starts on the day of the halving and ends the day the previous cycle’s all-time high (ATH) is surpassed. Summer begins immediately after and runs until the cycle’s ultimate peak. Fall starts at that ultimate high and continues until the post-summer low. Winter, the capitulation phase, begins when most of the summer gains are wiped out and typically lasts until the next halving — or, as occurred in 2024, until a new ATH is reached beforehand.
Across the first three Bitcoin halvings, the durations of these seasons showed notable consistency, even though exact lengths varied somewhat. At the time of the book’s publication, the fourth halving cycle (2024–2028) was still unfolding, so its seasonal timelines couldn’t be fully determined. Using AI assistance (Google’s Gemini), I analyzed the historical patterns and estimated the current cycle’s progression as follows: For the 4th Halving (2024–2028), Spring to Summer lasted roughly seven months, Summer to Fall lasted about eleven months, Fall to Winter is still in progress or TBD, and Winter to Spring is also TBD.
These early-season durations of seven and eleven months align closely with the averages from prior cycles. Historically, the Fall-to-Winter transition has lasted 12–14 months. Projecting a similar 12-month duration for this cycle suggests a potential capitulation window around October 2026. I’ve also observed that major financial market corrections and crashes frequently cluster between September and November. A Bitcoin capitulation in October would fit neatly into this broader seasonal tendency for market stress.
Bitcoin has already corrected significantly from its cycle peak of approximately $126,200 on October 6, 2025. I anticipate one final sharp capitulation phase — most likely between September and November 2026 (with October as the central expectation) — before the next sustained upward move begins. Personally, I continue to buy a small amount of Bitcoin each month with my salary. However, I’m deliberately building up extra cash reserves to deploy more aggressively during what I expect to be this final major dip of the cycle.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects my personal observations, interpretations of historical patterns, and opinions based on publicly available information and AI-assisted analysis. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or asset. Cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile and you could lose some or all of your invested capital. Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Having closely followed Bitcoin's price behavior over multiple cycles myself, I find the seasonal framework described in Michael Terpin’s Bitcoin Supercycle book particularly useful for planning investment strategies. The pattern of Spring starting at halving and Winter representing capitulation resonates with my personal experience during previous market cycles. For instance, during the 2020–2024 cycle, I observed a steady rise following the halving event in May 2020, corresponding to the Spring and Summer phases outlined. This culminated in the late 2021 peak before a prolonged correction, which aligns well with the Fall and Winter stages. The consistency of these phases helps me better anticipate entry and exit points, despite the inherent volatility of crypto markets. What I find especially valuable is incorporating AI tools like Google’s Gemini to analyze historical prices for predicting ongoing cycles. The estimated Fall-to-Winter transition landing around October 2026 fits patterns of broader market downturns I’ve seen in September to November historically, reinforcing the importance of timing. I personally employ a disciplined approach by accumulating small amounts of Bitcoin regularly while keeping cash reserves ready for potential dips. This strategy not only smooths out market volatility effects but also positions me to capitalize on significant price corrections predicted by the supercycle model. Moreover, understanding that Winter phases can last 12 to 14 months provides an essential reminder to maintain patience during downturns and avoid panic selling. It’s crucial to combine this knowledge with continuous research and professional financial advice, as crypto markets remain unpredictable. In summary, the Bitcoin Supercycle book’s insights, combined with AI-assisted analysis, offer a valuable lens through which to view Bitcoin’s cyclical market behavior. Integrating this framework into personal investment practices can improve decision-making and potentially enhance returns over the long term.
Hi i have been following ur page. thanks for all the insights. just curious, n if u dn mind sharing, how much do u put aside for investing into bitcoin every month? TIA!