Matt Shumer’s viral essay

Matt Shumer's viral essay "Something Big Is Happening"

Back to February 2020.

If you really noticed, there might be some people talking about a virus that was spreading abroad, but most people weren't interested. The stock market was going well. Children went to school as usual. You went out to eat, shook hands, met, planned travel. If someone said they were hoarding toilet paper, you would think they were reading too much weird things on the Internet.

And in just a few weeks, the world changed, the office closed, the baby went home, life turned into something you wouldn't believe if anyone had foretold.

I think we're in the middle of something much bigger than Covid.

I spent six years building an AI startup and investing in it, and I lived in this world and wrote this to people who are not in this world, family, friends, people who ask, "How is AI?" and get polite answers like banquets, because the real answer sounds like I'm crazy.

But now the gap between what I'm saying and what's happening is too big, and the people I'm worried about should know what's going to happen, even if it sounds crazy.

I have no influence on what's going to happen. Most people in the industry have no future. The future is determined by a few hundred researchers in a few companies, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind.

One-time model training by a small team in a few months can change the direction of the whole industry. Most people just build on what others do and watch the earth shake like you, just feel it first.

Now is the time, not "talk later," but "it's happening now."

I know it's true because it happened to me first.

What the outsiders don't understand is that the industry is not predicting, we are telling what is happening to our work and warning that you are going to meet.

AI has developed gradually, but by 2025, new techniques have made it faster and faster. New models are not only better, but better, and more often.

I started using AI more and less and I saw it doing things that I thought it would take my expertise.

On February 5, a new model was released from several companies one day, and I felt like the water was reaching my chest.

I didn't need to do the technique, I just told me what I wanted, and it was done.

No draft, no fix, no finish, I told you what I wanted, four hours of walking, back, work, and better than I did.

In fact, I told AI to create an app with UX, design, code, everything, write tens of thousands of lines, open the app itself, press the test itself, fix it until it was satisfied, and tell me, "Ready to test."

And it's usually complete.

The latest model shocked me the most because it was not just following orders, but making decisions like taste or judgement.

This is not an incremental improvement, but something new.

Why is this about you?

AI companies intend to make AI code well first, because AI creates AI. It requires code. When AI writes code, it creates the next version.

So the tech line hit first, not because it was aimed, but because it was the base of everything.

It's happening now, and it's expanding all careers.

Legal Finance Medical Accounting Consult Design Writing Analysis Customer Service

Not 10 years. Developers say 1-5 years. Some say faster.

"I'm not good at AI."

Right in 2023.

It's not now.

AI today is completely different from the previous six months. The gap between perception and reality is huge and dangerous because it makes people unprepared.

Most people use the free version, which is lagging behind.

People who actually use it on the job know what's going to happen.

True speed

2022 is still wrong.

2023 through the Bar Association.

2024 Write software

2025 Top Engineers Raise Jobs to AI

2026 New models make the old look old-fashioned

METR organizations measure how many minutes of end-to-end work AI performs from 10 minutes to 1 hour to 5 hours and exponential increments.

If the trend continues, AI will run several days within the next year, and several weeks within two years.

AI is building AI.

AI is already used to help create the next generation of AI.

According to Anthropic, AI writes a lot of the company's code, and feedback loops are speeding up.

This is an intelligence explosion.

Effect on career

Some researchers estimate that 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs may disappear in 1-5 years.

AI does not represent a single skill, but instead an overall thought-oriented task.

Impact sample

• Legislation

• Finance

• Writing

• Programmer

• Analytical medicine

• Customer support

Things that were thought to be safe, such as judgement, creativity, empathy, are being challenged.

The simple rule is that work done through computers is risky.

What should be done

• Use serious AI

• Use the best model

• Put AI into the real workflow

• Trial the most time-consuming task first

• If it works today, it'll be great soon.

Make financial arrangements flexible.

Focus on difficult substitutes such as relationships, legal responsibility, physical work.

Teach your child to adapt and use AI as

The positive side is that the barriers to building things almost disappear. Anyone can create an app, write a book, learn.

Create adaptive habits. More important than mastering a single tool.

Use AI for one hour a day. You're ahead of most people.

Big Picture

If AI is the equivalent of a country of 50 million geniuses that think 10 or 100 times faster than us, that is a historic security threat.

The good side is that medicine can accelerate enormous progress.

The risk side is hard control, misuse and authoritarian state surveillance.

What I know

• This is not a temporary current.

• The next 2-5 years will confusingly change the world.

• People who start first have the advantage.

• The future has arrived, but it's not knocking on your door yet.

It's coming.

Matt Shumer's viral essay "Something Big Is Happening"