11 May 69

"Thai Oil" First Quarter Results Net profit surged more than $1.94 billion, looking at the direction of global oil began to decline, affecting refining values to reduce the point. The next phase is likely to risk losses. The crude oil will be used in the next period of production as pre-supplied crude oil during March-April 69. At a high price, if the crude oil price decreases, there will also be losses on oil stocks. Tell the refinery discount measures should be short-term measures only.

On May 11, 69, the Chief Executive Officer and President of Thai Oil Co., Ltd. released its first quarter 2026 results. Thai Oil had a net profit of 19,481 million baht, higher than the quarter of 68 with a profit of 2,458 million baht. It was mainly a profit from oil stocks of 16,746 million baht, which is 85% of the net profit, an extra profit from the buyback of debentures of about 2,400 million baht.

However, Thai Oil has a perceived cost and other losses of 6,628 million. If the above-mentioned items are cut, Thai Oil will have a net profit of 6,927 million in the group's operations, which is a net profit of 4,136 million in the oil refining business, or 0.9 baht per liter. "

However, the unrest situation in the Middle East remained volatile and began to see negotiating efforts to end the war, in which the situation had the opportunity to lower oil prices, resulting in a risk of loss, as crude oil to be used in the next period of production was pre-supplied crude during the month. If the price of crude oil falls, there will also be a loss in the stock loss. And if the situation occurs, Thai Oil will have a liquidity risk, including an increase in the demand for working capital of 18 billion baht to support higher-cost crude oil write-offs, a decrease in cash flow of 2,800 million baht from a reduction in the price of oil in front of the refinery of 2-5 baht per liter, and an accrued compensation of 10,314 million baht per liter by stabilizing the price of oil, relieving the burden of living expenses through the oil fund mechanism, which in the past has been reimbursed. It may take a few years. That factor will result in a reduction of 31,000 million baht in Thai oil liquidity, which will increase financial costs by over 900 million baht per year.

During the energy crisis of the Middle East war, the price of Dubai crude rose to $170 per barrel, while the spread of crude oil and finished oil was usually $1-2 per barrel, but the crisis rose to $50 per barrel, and the cost of oil rose from $1.5 to $14 per barrel, an increase of about 9 times. Thai Oil reduced its dependence on Middle East oil from 91% to 35%, and then turned to buying from West Africa, North America and South America (the United States and Brazil).

Thai Oil also forecasts future outlook and direction for the second half, sees the Middle East conflict begin to ease in Q2 and result in Dubai crude oil prices. Q2 moves at an average of $102 per barrel, Q3 is expected to be $86.9 per barrel and Q4 from being $77.5 per barrel, bringing the average full-year price to $88.2 per barrel.

As for refining, even in the first quarter, refining will reach 7.6 baht per liter, but the direction since the second quarter is likely to decline with global oil prices, estimating that the second quarter of refining will fall to 2.6 baht per liter and gradually fall in the third and fourth quarters. The average annual refining value is expected to be 2 baht per liter.

As for the oil price reduction measures in front of the refinery, 2-5 baht / liter. Thai Oil is ready to cooperate with the public sector, but sees this measure as a short-term measure. The long-term part should be left to follow market forces. But if the world oil price is high for a long time and the state needs to take care of the price, it should be a group-specific care measure to avoid market impact. Understanding the public sector in such matters and working closely together.