Why gold prices are predicted to hit new record highs
1. Overview of forecasts
• Goldman Sachs expects the price of gold to rise by about US $4,000 (troy ounce) by mid-2026 from ~ US $3,772 as of September 24, 2025.
• In the case of "tail-risk," or ultra-high risk, the bank sees that the price of gold could reach ~ US $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if all the contributing factors are "true."
• The report divides gold buyers into two main groups:
• "Conviction buyers," such as central banks, ETFs, investment institutions that buy continuously for structural reasons.
• "Opportunistic buyers," such as consumers in emerging markets, who enter when prices / market conditions are favorable.
2. Main contributing factors (Drivers)
Goldman Sachs identified several main factors underpinning the price of gold, as follows:
Central banks
Central banks, especially in emerging markets (Emerging Markets), are increasing the proportion of gold in their reserves because they want to diversify from dollars / US bonds, etc.
Funds flow into ETFs and gold assets.
When interest rates fall, the "opportunity cost" of holding gold decreases, which increases the attraction.
Interest rates and money policies (US Fed & others)
If the Federal Reserve or other central banks lower interest rates, fixed deposit / interest decreases → makes gold, which does not provide interest, more attractive.
Geopolitical / Financial Uncertainty (Geopolitical & Financial Risk)
Uncertainties such as government debt, international conflicts, reducing the role of the US dollar reserve currency → causing gold to be seen as a "safe haven."
3. Quantitative assumptions and models
• Goldman Sachs states that approximately: Every time a "buyer conviction" (such as a central bank + ETF) buys a net 100 tons of gold, it pushes the price of gold up about 1.7% for about a period of time.
• The main assumptions of the model include:
• The central bank buys an average of ~ 80 tons of gold per month in 2025-26 (for some cases).
• Gold holding ETFs increased in line with interest rate cuts and buying force from institutional investors.
• Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that "upside risk" is higher than downside risk because there is still a continued buy-hold gap.
4. Conditions that may be obstacles (Risks / Headwinds)
• If the central bank, reduce gold purchases, or stall → may cause a reduction in boosts
• If the U.S. economy recovers very well, interest rates do not reduce, or "blossoms rise back" will increase the opportunity cost of carrying gold → reduce the buying force of gold.
• External factors such as a large increase in the price of gold may face sales / rebounds from long-held investors or institutions that already have a lot of holdings.
• Demand trends in the jewellery & retail sector may be weak if prices are too high.
5.The impact may be related to the gold shop / gold pawn business.
For gold shop or gold pawn businesses such as yours, there are points to consider according to this:
• Gold Costs May Rise: If World Gold Prices Move Up As Expected → Gold Shops May Have To Pay More When To Buy Gold, Or When Receiving Gold From Pawnee Depositors
• Pawn Sale / Release Opportunities: A higher gold price may encourage more gold holders to sell out or ask for a good price, which helps the gold pawn business.
• Consumer demand: Much price increases may make consumers feel "expensive" and delay purchases (especially jewelry) → may affect gold store sales.
• Liquidity Opportunities and Risks: For example, if a gold stock rises rapidly, a high price may raise capital costs, or a risk if it is to be sold off during a discount price.
• Use gold as a safe haven: As more investors turn to gold, such as through ETFs or gold deposits, there may be an external buying force, resulting in a more volatile gold market → Business to prepare.
6. Strategic conclusions
• Goldman Sachs considers gold to be one of the highest confidence assets within the commodities.
• In the Bank's view: Gold does not just temporary safe haven assets, but plays a "structural" role in central bank holdings and institutional investments, which can last many years.
• For Gold Shop / Gold Business: It is considered more of an opportunity to plan the medium-long term (e.g. buying gold into stock, setting sales prices, making allowances for fluctuations) than just looking at short-term movements.
• Although there are many opportunities, businesses should have a "response plan" if there is a price consolidation break or if the cost is so high that consumers delay buying.