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World Oil Crisis - What Will the Thais Hit?

Explain a simple graph.

Imagine a bazaar, if half a vegetable delivery car comes in one day, but the buyer is still the same - the price of vegetables rises immediately.

Oil is the same.

This graph says that over the past 60 years, every time global oil suddenly disappears, prices have doubled every time, for example.

❇ 1973 → Middle East War → Oil up 4 times in 1 year

❇ 1979 → Iranian Revolution → Highest penetrating price in history

❇ 2022 → Russian invasion of Ukraine → Price surge again round

And now the world uses twice as much oil as 1973 - which means that if there is another crisis, the tremors will be much heavier.

Why scary?

Because oil is not like other products.

If pearl milk tea is expensive - we can quit drinking.

If the oil is expensive - the car still has to run, the plane still has to fly, the factory still has to walk.

Economists call this "Inelastic Demand" - inelastic demand is how expensive it is.

If the supply is lost by 15%, but everyone still wants it - countries will buy it and prices will jump.

The impact that Thai people will feel directly

🛵 1. The cost of oil is much more expensive.

Motorcycle, taxi, pickup truck. The hardest hit.

People who drive to work every day - charges plunge

🛒 2. Everything expensive

Expensive oil → Expensive transportation cost → Expensive supermarket stuff based

Rice, vegetables, meat, everything has hidden transportation.

✈️ 3. Airfare is more expensive.

Impact tourism. Impact foreign tourists coming to Thailand.

Travel revenue shrinks - hits GDP directly

🏭 4. Industrial facilities affected

Thailand is the base of export production. If the cost of energy rises - the competitiveness reduces.

Foreign investors may delay new investment.

💸 5.Inflation + economy does not grow = Stagflation

This is the scariest situation.

Things get more expensive, but salaries don't go up. Poor people go down every day.

Thailand met like this in 2008 and is very difficult to recover.

How risky is Thailand?

Higher risk than many countries because

❇ Thailand imports almost all of its crude oil without a sufficient level of production.

□ Thailand's economy is dependent on tourism and exports, both affected by oil prices.

❇ Thai household debt is already very high. If things get more expensive - people have very little money left.

What the government should do (and has not yet taken seriously)

1. Strategic oil reserves to be sufficient for at least 90 days

2. Accelerate EV and public transportation. Reduce long-term oil dependence.

3. Plan emergency energy prices before the crisis comes, not after coming.

4. Communicate with the people, prepare for the response, not let them panic.

Brief summary

The world is still very heavy in oil and Thailand is harder than average.

If there is a real supply crisis - expensive things, expensive oil, economic stumbling, Thai people can definitely feel it.

The problem is, we're rarely prepared until the lights are on.

This is not far away. 🇹🇭

# Global economy # Economy # Oil cost # Thai economy # Trending

3/31 Edited to

... Read moreจากประสบการณ์ส่วนตัวที่ได้ติดตามข่าวสารและผลกระทบจากราคาน้ำมันที่พุ่งสูงขึ้นในช่วงที่ผ่านมา ผมสังเกตเห็นได้ชัดว่าคนทั่วไปได้รับผลกระทบกันแบบทั่วถึงจริงๆ โดยเฉพาะกับผู้ที่ใช้รถสาธารณะหรือรถส่วนตัวในการเดินทางประจำวัน เช่น วินมอเตอร์ไซค์หรือแท็กซี่ ที่ค่าใช้จ่ายด้านน้ำมันพุ่งสูงจนต้องปรับราคาโดยอัตโนมัติ ส่งผลต่อค่าครองชีพที่เพิ่มขึ้นแบบเรื้อรัง นอกจากนี้ เมื่อราคาน้ำมันสูงขึ้น ส่งผลไปยังต้นทุนการขนส่งสินค้า ทำให้ราคาสินค้าในซูเปอร์มาร์เก็ตพุ่งตามไปด้วย เช่น ผัก เนื้อสัตว์ และอาหารพื้นฐานอื่นๆ จึงไม่แปลกใจที่หลายครอบครัวจะรู้สึกกระทบกระเทือนต่อค่าใช้จ่ายประจำวันอย่างหนัก ในทางกลับกัน ภาคการท่องเที่ยวยังได้รับผลกระทบโดยตรงจากราคาตั๋วเครื่องบินที่เพิ่มสูงขึ้น อาจทำให้นักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติชะลอหรือเปลี่ยนแผนการเดินทาง ส่งผลต่อรายได้ของธุรกิจท่องเที่ยวและเศรษฐกิจชาติอย่างหลีกเลี่ยงไม่ได้ ซึ่งสิ่งนี้สะท้อนให้เห็นว่าความผูกพันของเศรษฐกิจไทยกับน้ำมันนั้นค่อนข้างใกล้ชิด สำหรับมาตรการบรรเทาความเสี่ยง ผมเห็นว่าการสำรองน้ำมันเชิงยุทธศาสตร์และการสนับสนุนการใช้พลังงานทางเลือก เช่น รถไฟฟ้าและการขนส่งสาธารณะ เป็นเรื่องจำเป็นและเร่งด่วน เพื่อช่วยลดการพึ่งพาน้ำมันในระยะยาว นอกจากนี้ การสื่อสารให้ประชาชนรับรู้และเตรียมตัวรับมืออย่างเหมาะสม ก็สำคัญไม่แพ้กัน เพราะจะช่วยลดความตื่นตระหนกและเพิ่มความเข้าใจในสถานการณ์อย่างรอบด้าน ในที่สุด วิกฤตนี้ไม่เพียงแต่เป็นเรื่องของราคาน้ำมันเท่านั้น แต่ยังเป็นสัญญาณเตือนให้เรามองเห็นช่องทางในการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจอย่างยั่งยืนและเตรียมพร้อมรับมือเหตุการณ์ในอนาคตอย่างมีแผนระบบด้วยเช่นกัน

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