Eye on the "Bab El Mandeb Strait" under Iranian power

When the Houthi in Yemen, an ally of Iran, are threatening to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is like Iran's second Strait of Hormuz, it may be a signal that the war in Iran will be extended for both a large and a period of time.

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Conflicts between the United States, Israel and Iran have affected energy and commodity markets, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route.

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The disruption of maritime shipping in the Persian Gulf has caused the price of Brent crude oil to soar sharply.

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But world trade also depends on many other narrow water routes, often called "bottlenecks," of global geopolitical importance. From the Strait of Hormuz to Malacca, world trade depends almost entirely on these five narrow water routes:

1️⃣ Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy strategic point. It is the only shipping route from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Besides being an important crude oil and natural gas shipping route, there are also a lot of chemical fertilizer exports through here. Therefore, the disruption of shipping from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will directly affect the cost of food production worldwide.

2️⃣ Suez Canal

The Suez Canal links the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, reducing the travel time between Asia and Europe by at least ten days. This water route supports up to 10% of global maritime trade, and since it is under Egyptian control, it is rarely directly threatened.

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The major weakness of this route is the Bab El Mandeb Strait, which lies at the southern end of the Red Sea, as such as the incident of an attack on a cargo ship by the Iranian-backed Houthi group in Yemen between 2023 and 2025, in retaliation for Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, forcing several operators to divert the African continent.

3️⃣ Panama Canal

The Panama Canal, linking the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, supports about 2.5% of global maritime trade, a share that is not large, but concentrated in high-value and strategic goods such as containerized goods, automobiles, and grain. The canal transports about 40% of U.S. containerized goods, amounting to US $270 billion annually.

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The vulnerability of the canal is due to climate and geopolitics. As in 2023 and 2024, severe droughts have caused water levels in the canal's freshwater reservoirs to drop sharply, resulting in a need to limit the number and size of ships. Then, in early 2025, Trump threatened to take control of the canal, citing concerns about the operation of some of the ports, a Hong Kong-based company.

4️⃣ Turkish Strait

It consists of the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles Strait. It passes through the center of Istanbul, Turkey, and divides Istanbul into two parts: the European part and the Asian part, which connect the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. These straits support 3% of global maritime trade. Although this share may seem small, it includes about 20% of global wheat exports from Ukraine, Russia and Romania.

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The current situation. Under the Montreux Convention, the Turkish government is in a difficult position because both Ukraine and Russia are important partners in major energy and military trade agreements. Turkey, which has been a NATO member since 1952, wants to strengthen relations with the West without upsetting Russia.

5️⃣ Strait of Malacca

The Strait of Malacca is the most congested shipping route in the world. It is between the Malayan Peninsula and Sumatra. It connects the two major waters of the world, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. It is the main gateway used by China, Japan and South Korea to import energy. Nearly 80% of China's oil imports pass through this route.

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However, pirates remain an ongoing concern for this ship route, but the bigger risk is a geopolitical risk; with the level of tension between China and the US or India, regarding the dominance of maritime power in the region has steadily increased, and could seriously affect traffic through the Strait of Malacca.

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Around the world, there are as many as 24 major maritime strategic points. In addition to the above "bottlenecks," there are other important water routes such as the Taiwan Strait, Dover Strait, and B-Ring Strait. Each of these water routes faces geopolitical tensions, climate change, pirates, accidents, or natural disasters in different ways.

⚠️ Iranian strategy in the Bab El Mandeb Strait and the Houthi attacks

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The Bab El Mandeb Strait, an Arabic name that means "Gate of Tears" or "Gate of Sadness," is a 20-mile-wide, 70-mile-long strait.

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• 🔶 Between Yemen and Djibouti, at the southern end of the Red Sea, and Eritrea on the African continent.

• 🔶 is an important strategic point, connecting the Red Sea out into the Gulf of Aden (Indian Ocean) and the Arabian Peninsula.

• 🔶 is a connection between Africa, Europe and Asia. The Baelmandeb Strait is of great geopolitical importance.

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The strait is the southern entrance to the Suez Canal. All ships traveling between Europe, the Middle East and Asia must pass through the Bab El Mandeb Strait before entering the Suez Canal.

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Yemen controls the Bab El Mandeb Strait, and the Houthis have used the strait as a tactic to intimidate cargo ships over the years; in late 2023, the Houthis announced that it would attack ships in the Bab El Mandeb Strait to aid the Iranian-backed Hamas, which is at war with Israel in the Gaza Strip.

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The majority of Houthis are Shia Muslims with links to Iran, who finance a rebellion against the Sunni Muslim-majority Yemeni government, and attack Saudi Arabia, which is led by Sunni Muslims.

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The Bab El Mandeb Strait has become a major global collision point due to the enormous volume of trade and oil that passes through the strait. Many world powers, including the United States and China, have set up large military bases on the Djibouti side of the strait, claiming that to prevent the Bab El Mandeb Strait from being targeted for conflict, only last year President Donald Trump launched a heavy air strike operation against the Houthi.

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In the "secret war" between Iran and Israel, there have been several attacks on commercial ships, mostly in or near the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab El Mandeb.

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The Hormuz Strait crisis is currently underway, and conflicts in the Middle East have left the Bab El Mandeb Strait, an estimated 12% of the world's oil shipping routes, facing heightened tensions.

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Because if the shipping lanes in the Baelmandeb Strait were blocked or disrupted, the ship would have to detour south of Africa, increasing the distance by thousands of kilometers and increasing the travel time by days.

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The Houthi group, backed by Iran, has threatened to escalate attacks on shipping lanes passing through the Bab El Mandeb Strait; if it does, the situation will only worsen combined with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz; with both key shipping points simultaneously disrupted, the world will face one of the most severe supply crises in decades.

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The Baelmandeb Strait is also a key point in China's Belt and Road Initiative.

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As the world's largest energy consuming country, China has enormous demand for oil and natural gas, from the Bab El Mandeb Strait African countries such as Sudan, Eritrea and Yemen, which are China's major suppliers of imported energy.

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Maintaining the stability and stability of the Bab El Mandeb Strait is therefore of vital importance to China's energy security.

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