The price changes in 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, Car resale transition map [full version]

In fact, there is a car whose residual value is more than twice different after 7 years.

Jimny (72% at 7 years) vs BMW 3 Series (34% at 7 years)

Even with the same "car," by the combination of the holding period and the car type category,

The economic burden during the holding period changes so much.

Moreover, Rankuru 300 remains 107% even after 7 years ─ ─

There may be evaluations beyond the new car.

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📌 [First, apology and correction]

Posted on April 14, 2026 "Car map that will not drop in price in 5 years"

There were parts where the category classification was not accurate for three car models.

✓ Rankuru Prado: 550 → 4 million yen (price drop 27.2%) → ② price drop 10-30%

✓ Alphard: 600 → 4.3 million yen (price drop 28.3%) → ② price drop 10-30%

✓ Prius: 320 → 2 million yen (price drop 37.5%) → ③ price drop 30-50%

In the original post, the year, grade, and powertrain

It was categorized in a mixed state.

Thank you very much for pointing it out 🙏

From now on, we will deliver information with a more accurate structure.

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📊 [4 Categories of Price Drop Rate (Corrected Version)]

① Price drop 0-10% (asset class, residual value ratio 90-100% or more)

② Price drop 10-30% (excellent / residual price rate 70-90%)

③ Price drop 30-50% (standard / residual price rate 50-70%)

④ Price drop 50% or more (Caution required · Residual price rate less than 50%)

The point is that the car type changes categories depending on the holding period.

There are also models that go down to ① in 3 years and ② in 7 years.

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📈 [Order is almost decided in 3 years]

Residual Value Rate Trend by Period (April 2026 JAAI / USS Actual):

🟢-class SUV: 3 years 125% / 5 years 113% / 7 years 99%

🔵 Family: 3 years 93% / 5 years 83% / 7 years 70%

🟡 standard car: 3 years 83% / 5 years 59% / 7 years 45%

🔴 imported sedan: 3 years 59% / 5 years 43% / 7 years 30%

As of three years, the categories are already divided.

However, since the category shifts in time for each car type,

It is recommended to look at it including the holding period.

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🟢 [Asset-class SUV zone: value is hard to fall over the entire period]

✓ Rankle 300 (ZX): 137% / 118% / 107%

✓ Lancle Prado: 137% / 138% / 117%

✓ Jimny (JB64 ・ XCAT): 102% / 84% / 72%

Jimny will migrate to Category 2 after 5 years.

[Actual experience of Rankuru owner]

"Rankuru 300ZX full equipped · 1 year 10,000km assessment:

New car payment total 9.5 million yen → purchase assessment 11 million yen "

There are also cases where the purchase price exceeds the new car.

Personal stories posted on X

However, more than 100% of Rankuru 300

"Delivery waiting premium" + "Export control boundary of 9 years"

Composite special factors.

The market may fluctuate due to future supply recovery.

Academic Backing:

Pushkarev 2025 states that "to maintain residual value in the used car market,

The long-term validity of functional properties is more important than brand prestige.

It points out.

Functional characteristics such as ladder frame and rough road running performance

It is a reflection of the structure that is valued as an asset globally.

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🔵 [Family excellent car zone: residual value 70-100% even in 5 years]

✓ Alphard 40 series HEV: 100% / 107% / 87%

✓ Harrier (HEV): 90% / 70% / 59%

✓ Honda N-BOX: 88% / 72% / 64%

The Alphard 40 series HEV maintained a remaining value of 107% in five years.

In the original post, it was stated as "6 million → 4.3 million"

Late 30 series numbers.

The current model has a completely different structure.

[Alphard Owner's Sale Experience (May 2026)]

"On the first day of assessment by multiple contractors,

Alphard is an initial negotiation adjustment of about -50,000 to 150,000 yen "

It is an example that the difficulty of selling timing differs depending on the model.

Personal stories posted on X

This zone is a family layer that changes in 3 to 5 years

The most capital efficient zone.

However, because the market value is high, the agreement insurance price of automobile insurance and

There may be a gap in the actual market value.

This is a point that you want to check when signing an insurance contract.

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🟡 [Standard car zone: type to take the original long ride]

✓ Prius (ZHEV): 61% / 40% / 28%

✓ Corolla Cross (HEV): 95% / 70% / 55%

✓ Honda Vezel (HEV): 91% / 70% / 56%

✓ Mazda CX-5 (gasoline): 83% / 56% / 40%

These are not "losing cars,"

Long-term mobility supported by domestic actual demand.

It is not an idea to change in 3-5 years,

It is a zone where a strategy to minimize depreciation costs by riding for more than 7 years fits.

💡 Notes when making a residual value setting type loan:

If you cancel halfway through the 30-50% depreciation phase,

It is a structure that tends to cause a "debt split" where the vehicle value is lower than the loan balance.

It is easy to judge by reading it as a set with the Sunday post "Car Subscription."

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🔴 [Special theory of imported car sedan + EV: 50-60% in 3 years, 50% or less in long term]

✓ BMW 3 Series (320i): 60% / 45% / 34%

✓ Mercedes-Benz C-Class (C220d): 63% / 45% / 30%

✓ Audi A4 (40 TFSI): 54% / 38% / 25%

✓ EV market average: 64% / 48% / 36%

[Academic evidence]

Schloter 2022 (N = 24,000) is

Gasoline cars depreciate 10.4% annually, while EVs depreciate 13.9% annually.

With the compounding effect, the difference after seven years will widen to over 20% of the vehicle price.

Diouf 2025 says that subsidies for new car purchases

It will trigger a sharp decline in the used EV market. "

However, due to the influx of vehicles equipped with LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries,

The EV depreciation curve may smooth in the future.

🔥 [Transmission from Tax Accountants (May 2026)]

"Used Benz 4 years old tax saving"

Some of you may have heard of it.

It is true that the full amount can be reduced in 2 years,

Sales profits are properly taxed at the exit.

Look only at the tax saving at the entrance and forget the tax at the exit

I see it every year. "

※ About 66 likes on X ・ Transmission by tax accountant

At the total cost including not only the entrance but also the exit

I want to judge.

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🎯 [Optimal selection by holding period × car type category]

🚙 3 years ownership · transfer frequent → asset class SUV is optimal

Lancle Prado Jimny is the lead.

The risk of short-term selling is lowest.

🚐 5 years · Family royal road group → Family excellent car is best

Alphard 40 series HEV · Harrier · N-BOX.

Good capital efficiency with remaining value of 70-90%.

🚗 7 years or more · Long-term holding group → Standard car used acquisition is best

Used Prius Vezel etc.

Annual depreciation costs are minimized.

Harrier Owner's 10-Year Actual Experience

"New car departure 3.2 million yen → 10 years later assessment 1.4 million yen (residual value about 44%)

1.4 million for 10 years is good.

The next NX 350h will not be so good.

There are models that have a certain resale value even with long-term ownership.

Personal stories posted on X

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This is not a decision,

It is an auxiliary line of what fits in the holding period.

A car that fits your lifestyle.

Is it correct to choose for yourself 🌿

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🚗 [All in three parts]

🔸 Tuesday post "The median down payment is 600,000 yen" (at the time of purchase)

🔸 Sunday Post "Monthly Contents of Car Subscription" (Contract form)

🔸 Monday post "Resale transition map" (at the time of sale)

From the entrance to the exit of the car purchase, you can read in three parts.

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Every day at 22: 00, during the delivery of car and mobility data 📊

Hashtags# futurestackcarsYou can also check past posts.

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[References]

・ Schloter, L. (2022).

An empirical analysis of the depreciation ofelectric vehicles

compared togasoline vehicles.

Transport Policy, 126, 268-279.

* 36 citations ・ Number of samples N = 24,000

Pushkarev, A.A. (2025).

Factors affecting residual value retention

in the secondary car market.

Moscow Economic Journal.

Diouf, B. (2025).

Electric vehicle subsidy effects

on used market depreciationdynamics.

World Electric Vehicle Journal.

[Data Source]

April 2026 JAAI / USS Contractor Auction Actual Base

Representative grade, mileage 30,000 km standard, Perplexity aggregate

Choosing a car # car _ life I want to connect with car lovers FutureStack LLC