Walkthrough for 13th March 2026 for the market
I was telling my group that even though we have fallen quite a fair bit during the week, I don’t expect Friday to have a short term bounce even though it was the last day of week.
Reason being the report from Thursday 12th, shows me that alot of bearish directional trades were open for 13th. You can see that for the SPY and QQQ screenshot.
so during market open, you can see VIX actually dropped and market tried to bounce, however, we can see VIX could not drop and stay below the pivot of $25 and then it rebounded, taking down the snp500 and Nasdaq with it, which also show them staying below pivot and unable to break upwards of it.
This is why I shorted the market on Friday.
As per the last screenshot, it tells me that April is when the market probably have a bottom.. and SPY $660 is a very important pivot and I will look to add some long positions there.
#sgfinance #sginvestment #tradingview #optionstrading #sgfirecouple
From my personal trading experience, analyzing option flows can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. On March 12, 2026, the SPY options market showed significant put buying and selling activity, indicating a bearish bias among institutional traders. This aligns with the observed rise in the VIX index, which struggled to stay below its $25 pivot, signaling increased market volatility and investor fear. Notably, the heavy put activity at strike prices around 690 for SPY suggests considerable protective hedging or speculative bearish bets, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook ahead of March 13. Such large options trades often precede downward price pressure, as market makers hedge by selling underlying shares, pushing prices lower. Therefore, I was comfortable taking short positions on the market Friday, anticipating continued weakness. Looking ahead, the $660 level in SPY stands out as a critical support pivot. Historically, this price range has acted as a floor during past corrections and could serve as an attractive entry point for long positions if reached. Based on volume and gamma support levels, it's reasonable to expect the market to find a bottom near this area, possibly in April 2026. For traders and investors, monitoring the VIX alongside options flow dynamics is essential. A failure of VIX to decline below key pivots often indicates sustained volatility and bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the interplay of call and put options, especially large trades clustered around specific strikes, provides clues about market participants' expectations and risk management strategies. In summary, combining VIX behavior, options flow data, and price pivot analysis delivered a compelling argument for a short bias in mid-March 2026, with the strategic plan to add longs near SPY $660 when clear signs of support emerge. This approach leveraged technical signals and sentiment indicators to navigate uncertain market conditions effectively.
