The world entered a "nuclear ceiling-free" era after New START expired.
The world entered a "nuclear ceiling-free" era after New START expired.
Russia remains the world's largest nuclear power, with the Federation of American Scientists estimating that in 2026, Russia has a total of about 5,420 nuclear warheads, divided into about 4,400 military-use stockpiles, and about 1,020 decommissioned warheads awaiting decommissioning. ☢️
Russia and the U.S. occupy nuclear warheads together for about 86% of the global total, but the key mechanism that used to control both countries' arsenals has come to an end.
The New START Treaty, signed in 2010, expires on February 5, 2026 without a replacement for the new agreement, leaving Russia and the U.S. currently without legal restrictions governing the number of strategic nuclear warheads and remote delivery systems for the first time in decades.
Before its expiration, the treaty set a ceiling on no more than 1,550 active-duty strategic nuclear warheads and no more than 700 active-duty delivery systems per country, but the verification process virtually ceased to function after Russia suspended compliance with the treaty in 2023.
Russia has indicated that it will still temporarily maintain the original voluntary ceiling as long as the United States does not increase its force beyond that level, but this declaration, is not a legal obligation and does not have a monitoring mechanism as in the past.
The danger therefore lies not only in the number of warheads that may increase, but in the fact that both sides see less of each other's movements, increased risk of misassessment, weapons cumulative competition, and decision-making under incomplete information.
The "nuclear ceiling" era does not mean that both countries will immediately start producing unlimited warheads, but it does mean that the legal mechanisms that previously prohibited them have disappeared.
Source: Federation of American Scientists, U.S. Department of State, Arms Control Association
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