Franklin Fire Malibu
#FIRE #Wind 📍 City/Country: Malibu, Los Angeles
Tuesday, December 10, 2024, 9:00 AM PDT: Here we go again; another fire is gripping Malibu this morning as damaging Santa Ana winds have fanned the flames for the past six hours. The good news is that the axis of the Santa Ana wind flank has shifted more towards the Oxnard plain and has decreased the wind situation in the Malibu fire zone; however, the wind intensity with E/NE gusts 35MPH to 45MPH is still very sporadic in that region and will continue to be that way until at least 10 PM.
The unforgiving Santa Ana winds for the past 12 hours with E/NE gusts of 45MPH to 60 MPH combined with extremely low humidity values down to 3% were reported from 2 AM through 8 AM. Has created PDS Southern California where fires can occur. Currently, humidity values hovering around 10 to 20 percent; however, this is still not helping the ongoing fire situation of the dreaded #FranklinFire that burned over 2,200 acres in the last 6 hours PCH continues to grow exponentially with no containment insight at this present time.
This is an absolute nightmare for the Malibu community as many residents are still recovering from the Woosley fire and the lingering economic effects of the pandemic. The city of Malibu has not been the same since then. The cause of the fire is still unknown at this point.
Much-needed pattern change for the state of California includes Northern California, a series of strong storm systems origin from the Philippines will impact Oregon and Washington state as well as Northern California communities from Humboldt County to San Francisco starting on Saturday, December 14 through December 23 least 1.4 to 5.0 inches rainfall is projected.
The upcoming system late Saturday night will have a decaying cold frontal boundary that may bring 0.01 to 0.04 inches of rainfall from Santa Barbara to Western Los Angeles counties but this still has very minimal effects most likely no precipitation is higher confidence currently. The only real good news is higher humidty values to help the current fire situation over the upcoming weekend which is the best weather news I can give at this point.
I'm watching very closely for a possibility slight southward trajectory in the main low axis approximately 180 miles West of Eureka California change in the next 36 - 42 hours. More updates to come.
Unfortunately, no significant rainfall for the Southern California region from Ventura to San Diego counties as a 1025 mb surface high remains anchored over our region well into Christmas, Hanukkah, and Kwanzaa at this present time as the main storm track stays focused into the Pacific Northwest which occurs during La Nina year.
As the Franklin Fire rages on in Malibu, it's crucial to understand the environmental factors contributing to this disaster. The Santa Ana winds, known for their strength and unpredictability, can exacerbate fire conditions by lowering humidity levels to alarming rates—sometimes as low as 3%. In recent reports, the fire has expanded rapidly, affected by gusts ranging from 45 to 60 MPH. This can create a phenomenon known as the "firestorm," where the fire's intensity can lead to rapid spreading across dry regions. It's particularly worrying given that many residents of Malibu are still recovering from the devastating Woolsey Fire, which has left long-lasting impacts on the community's economy and mental health. With predictions of a shift in the weather pattern, there's cautious optimism for higher humidity levels that could aid in containing the fire. Meteorologists also note the potential arrival of storm systems from the Philippines, capable of bringing significant rainfall to Northern California, which could eventually lead to improvements in Southern California's fire conditions. However, given current forecasts, minimal precipitation is expected in the immediate area, as high-pressure systems dominate the local weather pattern. Community members are urged to stay informed and prepared as conditions remain volatile. It’s essential to follow local news and weather updates closely, especially in this La Niña year, which historically presents challenges in firefighting efforts due to drier than average conditions.
stay safe!